College Hoops Has a Stats Problem: Rankings Through a Big 5 Lens.

College basketball has a KenPom problem.

Not the man — I don’t know him personally — but the geeky, digital almanac of metrics and rating statistics he engineered and so humbly named after himself. Not even the KenPom website itself, as there are probably hundreds of these sites that all do essentially the same thing (ranking college basketball teams), just utilizing different algorithms and emphasizing different categories around the game.

Yesterday the veil was lifted on another key reference point, the NCAA’s NET rankings.. pause for any Big 5 readers curious where their team currently ranks:

50. Villanova

78. Saint Joe’s

171. Temple

181. La Salle

185. Penn

Now, you might be wondering how Villanova is 135 spots higher than Penn after not only losing to the Quakers weeks ago, not only losing to St. Joe’s handedly last week, but also losing to your 5th place Drexel Dragons just this weekend, thus coming in dead last place in the Inaugural Big 5 Classic.

If you are wondering that, you have no idea how this all works. If you’re wondering that, I envy you. Not that I am the genius interpreter of sport metrics, nor am I even versed in the intricacies that rank teams on these seemingly ambiguous or unrelated categories. In fact the opposite. I just immerse myself in the threads of conversations surrounding these stats. I listen to smart people who can decipher these stats or make meaningful projections based on them, and then I talk about them pretending to understand the meaning behind them. Adjusted efficiency? Sure. A quad 2 win? Absolutely. “Luck Rating” .. Seriously?

There are a few things I do know about KenPom, Torvik, and other advanced metric sites.

For example, I know that good teams with good records are usually ranked pretty high — though not exclusively.

I know that this discrepancy in rankings between Villanova and Penn will only end up being considerably wider come March due to the fact the Wildcats will face the highest ranked opponents on a nightly basis over in the Big East, or as FOX analyst John Fanta calls it, the league founded on Meatballs, Prayer, and Hoops.

I know that when a middling team or even a good team has a massive win, it bumps them up a few spots in all of these alternative ranking sites. When they lose a game to a majorly inferior opponent, however, they plummet quickly.

Finally, I know that these stat databases (and more so the constant reference toward them) can really squeeze a lot of the fun and enjoyment out of being a fan.

This Big 5 year has been incredibly special and something absolutely nobody could have seen coming.

As a St. Joe’s fan — I had the privilege of watching the Hawks take down the Wildcats at their place since the year Jameer Nelson posed for the cover of Sports Illustrated. The excitement was there, undoubtedly. However, one of my first reactions was one of impatience as I knew the KenPom ratings wouldn’t be updated until the next day and I was so focused on how many spots St. Joe’s would jump.

What’s even worse? I found myself rooting for Villanova over the Big-5 newcomer and clear underdog Drexel in the 5th/6th place match of the Classic.

That is incredibly lame.

Not just because, as any good Hawk fan will tell you, a Nova loss like that should always be celebrated, but because I forgot about being a fan of a real game, enjoying upsets and storylines that make college basketball such a unique sport that we all love.

Why was I rooting for Nova? Because their loss to Drexel can and will dilute St. Joes’ win from a metrics perspective. And in this reality, nearly every mid-major team in the country who all share the same annual aspirations — getting their name called for March Madness — are forced to constantly reference the state of these metrics. As the big boys continue to make it much harder for the little guys to get their foot in the door, you have to build an undeniable resume through these alternative channels, and even then, so much is out of your control.

These data sets are nothing new, they just continue to rise in popularity. Their importance commands attention and discussion. The Big 5, and this past weekend, can be used as a prime example of when and where these stats should be thrown out the window. The Big 5 was built on regional beefs, banter between schools, bragging rights, generations of fans recounting the icons of this city that put us on a national scale.

My advice to fans of teams in the Big 5 that aren’t perennial powerhouse programs would be to ignore these stats, but in saying that I would be hypocritical.